Expected Outcome Value and Risk
Combine separate possible outcomes with their probabilities.
Your numbers
Outcome value on average
Use consistent units. Result follow the assumptions wey you enter.
Compare scenarios
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Formula
Use μ = Σpᵢxᵢ and V = Σpᵢ(xᵢ−μ)². xᵢ na outcome values and pᵢ na di matching probability fractions wey total one. μ na expected value and V na variance; standard deviation na im square root.
Combine separate possible outcomes with their probabilities.
Example wey show the calculation
- Values of possible outcomes
- 0, 10, 20
- Probabilities wey add up to 1
- 0.2, 0.5, 0.3
- Outcome value on average
- 11
- How values spread: variance
- 49
- How values spread: standard deviation
- 7
Where e fit work and limits
Use consistent units. Result follow the assumptions wey you enter.
We check inputs for missing values and allowed ranges. Result wey pass the finite numeric range no go show. Rounding affect wetin display, while calculation use the model numeric precision.
Check your units and assumptions before you rely on result. Changing label no convert currency or physical unit.
Version of di formula: 5c0a6b45f063 · Example don get check: